Հրապարակման ամսաթիւ:

2025

ISBN:

978-9939-9312-5-8

Համատեղ հեղինակները:

ՀՀ ԳԱԱ Մ. Քոթանյանի անվան տնտեսագիտության ինստիտուտ

Աջակից(ներ):

Պատ․ խմբ․՝ Ռոբերտ Սարինյան

Ծածկոյթ:

30-45

Ամփոփում:

The analysis of a country’s balance of payments (BoP) is increasingly relevant for assessing its macroeconomic stability, especially for small, open economies like Armenia that are highly exposed to external shocks. Recent geopolitical developments have significantly affected Armenia’s external sector through changes in capital inflows, remittances, and trade dynamics, making the BoP a critical tool for evaluating the country’s economic resilience. This study aims to analyze the structural features and trends of Armenia's BoP, identify the key risks and sources of vulnerability, and develop policy recommendations for strengthening its external economic position. The research tasks include evaluating the dynamics of key BoP components (trade balance, FDI, remittances), conducting a comparative analysis with selected countries (Georgia, Kazakhstan, Serbia), and assessing the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and its relationships with BoP. The methodology is based on quantitative analysis of BoP statistics, comparative benchmarking with similar economies, and the examination of REER dynamics using standard international methodologies. The study integrates descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and structural comparison to assess Armenia’s external sector performance. The findings reveal that while Armenia continues to face a persistent current account and trade deficit, these have been partially offset in recent years by rising FDI and remittance inflows, many of which are linked to regional geopolitical shifts. The sharp appreciation of the AMD and the overvaluation of the REER pose risks to export competitiveness, suggesting that the observed BoP improvements are driven more by financial inflows than structural trade changes. The sustained BoP stability requires strategic reforms focused on export diversification, investment attraction, and long-term financial planning.

Հրատարակութեան վայրը:

Երևան

Հրատարակիչ:

ՀՀ ԳԱԱ ՏԻ

Ձեւաչափ:

pdf

Նոյնացուցիչ:

կապին հետեւելուն համար սեղմէ հոս ; oai:arar.sci.am:425850

Գլխաւոր նշումը:

Նվիրված ՀՀ Գաա Մ. Քոթանյանի անվան տնտեսագիտության ինստիտուտի հիմնադրման 70-ամյակին