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Forecasting the Investment Environment
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investment ; forecasting ; investment environment ; ARIMA ; seasonality
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Assessment and forecasting of the investment environment are of great importance for both the country and the investors. Investments are used for the creation of new value in different sectors not only to start productions, but also upgrade the existing ones. If the country’s investment environment is attractive and predictable for the investors, the risks are less for the investors who may face them during their investment activities. To control and ensure investment activities in place, different countries adopt several laws to make it happen. In the Republic of Armenia to control the investment activities the RA Law “On Investment Fund” was adopted in 2010. By different economists and researchers over 500 factors have been found which can affect the investment environment, but for the investors first of all it is important to understand the trend of the investments in the country and the future of it. That gives lots of information about the country’s investment environment. In this article, ARIMA time series forecasting model has been used to forecast the volume of investments in the Republic of Armenia until 2027. The results have shown that with the current dynamics, the volume of investments can reach up to 2.5 billion US dollars.
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